A Procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Hirose, Jiro*; Muramatsu, Ken; Okumura, Toshihiko*; Taki, Satoshi*

JAERI-Research 2002-009, 220 Pages, 2002/03

JAERI-Research-2002-009.pdf:13.31MB

This report presents procedures for the determination of Scenario Earthquakes for seismic design based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Recently PSHA was recognized as an important basis to identify dominant earthquakes predicted to threaten the site in future. The identified earthquakes are called Probability-Based Scenario Earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates from the studies of US NRC and Ishikawa & Kameda. The objective of this study is to formulate the procedures to determine the PBSEs and, through this application, to demonstrate the feasibility of the application to seismic design. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to determine PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and examination of uncertainty involved in analytical conditions. The results imply that the procedures based on the Ishikawa's concept is a useful evaluation technique to determine scenario earthquakes for seismic design considering uncertainty involved in analytical conditions.

Technical issues on incorporating probability-based scenario earthquakes into seismic design of nuclear power plants

Hirose, Jiro*; Muramatsu, Ken; Okumura, Toshihiko*; Taki, Satoshi*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-5), p.1383 - 1390, 2000/00

no abstracts in English

Development of methodology for probabilistic safety assessment of seismic events

Muramatsu, Ken

Proc. of 10th Sino-Jananese Seminar on Nuclear Safety, 0, p.1.3.1 - 1.3.16, 1995/00

no abstracts in English

Seismic fragility evaluation of nuclear power plants based on bayesian inference

Yamaguchi, Akira

PNC TN9410 94-070, 51 Pages, 1994/02

PNC-TN9410-94-070.pdf:2.09MB

Seismic fragilities of equipment and systems are evaluated in a seismic probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The seismic fragility is defined as the failure probability and its uncertainty at various ground acceleration levels. One evaluates the seismic fragility efficiently by making most use of available information in the seismic PSA. This study is related to a Bayesian inference method to reflect the information to the seismic fragility evaluation. Information that can be used in the Bayesian inference is (1)seismic experience data, (2)expert judgment on the seismic fragility, (3)seismic test data. The generic fragility database was used as the prior fragility that was to be updated. The acceleration level of the seismic experience and test data is much lower than the median value of the seismic capacity level of equipment. However, it is useful to cut down the lower tail of the fragility curves thus the modeling uncertainty. As the results, it is has been found that the annual frequency of failure that is calculated by the convolution of the fragility with seismic hazard curves is reduced considerably. Furthermore, the author has proposed the concept of entropy to quantify the value of the information used in the Bayesian inference. The combined use of the Bayesian inference and the entropy is a useful method to propose a cost-effective seismic test for the fragility evaluation. Findings obtained from the seismic PSA are taken into consideration in achieving more reasonable safety design. It should be noted that the findings are strongly affected by the uncertainty. Hence the reduction is necessary of the uncertainty of the contributive equipment from the viewpoint of seismic safety. Specific analysis and test of the contributive equipment is an effective way of reducing the uncertainty.

A Methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation and sensitivity study

; *; *; Abe, Kiyoharu

Doboku Gakkai Rombunshu, 0(437), p.143 - 152, 1991/10

https://doi.org/10.2208/jscej.1991.437_143

no abstracts in English

Sensitive study on sesmic hazard

; *; *; Abe, Kiyoharu

IAE-R-8807, p.83 - 88, 1988/00

no abstracts in English